Washington, DC
February 1, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World ending stocks are projected
to decline during 2007/08 by 1.3 million ton to 11.4 million
tons as a result of the gap between world production and
consumption. World cotton area is projected remain stable in
2008/09 at 33.9 million hectares, less than 1% higher than in
2007/08. Cotton area is projected to decline mostly in the USA
(-11%), slight increases are expected in China (Mainland),
India, African Franc Zone and Brazil, while stable area is
projected for Pakistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan
World cotton yields are expected to continue rising in 2008/09
and are projected at 794 (+3%) kilograms per hectare. As a
result, world cotton production in 2008/09 is expected to
increase by 1 million tons to 26.9 million tons. However, world
mill use is projected to increase further to
27.4 million tons (+1%), still exceeding production. As a
result, a further reduction in world ending stocks could take
place to an estimated 10.9 million tons (-5%).
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 67 cents per pound in 2007/08,
8 cents higher than in 2006/07. An expected significant decline
in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China
(Mainland) is pushing prices higher in 2007/08.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.74 |
25.87 |
26.9 |
122.8 |
118.8 |
123.8 |
|
Consumption |
26.64 |
27.14 |
27.4 |
122.4 |
124.6 |
126 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.9 |
8.75 |
37.3 |
41.1 |
40.2 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.70 |
11.4 |
10.95 |
58.3 |
52.5 |
50.3 |
|
Stock adjustment |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.25 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
67** |
. |
59.15 |
67** |
. |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2005/06, 2006/07 (estimates) and 2007/08 (projection), and on
the ending stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in 2005/06
and 2006/07 (estimates).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks:
62 to 71 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_february_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
