Washington, DC
June 3, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
The ICAC forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 79 cents per pound in 2008/09,
6 cents higher than the expected 2007/08 average. This projected
price increase is due mainly to an expected decline in the
stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland).
World cotton production is projected to decline slightly in
2008/09 to 25.9 million tons. Declines in production are
forecast in the United States, Brazil, and Turkey due to
competition from grains and soybeans. These reductions could
offset increases projected in Asia, West Africa and Australia.
Global cotton mill use is expected to remain stable at 26.7
million tons in 2008/09 due to slower world economic growth and
higher prices of cotton relative to polyester.
World consumption is expected to exceed production in 2008/09.
As a result, world ending stocks are forecast down by 6% to 11.3
million tons.
World imports are expected to increase by 5% to 8.8 million tons
in 2008/09 due to projected higher imports by China (Mainland).
Imports by the rest of the world are projected down for the
second consecutive season.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.66 |
26.21 |
25.9 |
122.4 |
120.4 |
119 |
|
Consumption |
26.67 |
26.71 |
26.7 |
122.5 |
122.7 |
123 |
|
Exports |
8.14 |
8.25 |
8.8 |
37.4 |
37.9 |
40 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.43 |
12.1 |
11.3 |
57.1 |
55.1 |
52 |
|
Stock adjustment |
-0.01 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
+0.1 |
0.0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
73** |
79*** |
59.15 |
73** |
79*** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 represents the Secretariat
judgment, based on the average price for the first ten months
and projected price variations during the rest of the season.
*** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence interval: 66
to 91 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_june_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
