Ottawa, Canada
May 30, 2008
Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
The area seeded to grains and
oilseeds (G&O) for 2008-09 is expected to increase slightly from
2007-08 as higher areas seeded to wheat and oilseeds more than
offsets lower area seeded to coarse grains. It is assumed that
precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest
periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be
normal. Trend yields are assumed for eastern Canada, but lower
than trend yields are expected for western Canada because of low
moisture reserves in many areas. Except for corn, average yields
are expected to be higher than for 2007-08.
Due to higher area and yields, production of G&O in Canada is
forecast to increase to about 62 million tonnes (Mt) from 60 Mt
for 2007-08. However, supply is expected to decrease by 2%
because of significantly lower carry-in stocks. Exports,
domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease
because of the lower supply. World and Canadian prices for G&O
are expected to remain historically high due to strong demand
and low world carry-in stocks. The main factors to watch are:
weather conditions in the major importing and exporting
countries, exchange rates, ocean shipping cost, fund activity,
and export policies in competing countries.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/22744g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
For 2008-09, total area seeded to
pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to decrease
marginally from 2007-08, as lower areas for lentils, dry beans,
chickpeas, sunflower seed and canary seed are partly offset by
higher areas for dry peas and mustard seed. Statistics Canada’s
(STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 20-31
and released on April 21, provided estimates for most pulse and
special crops, but for some crops the area has been forecast by
AAFC. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the
growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and
quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both
western and eastern Canada.
Total production in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally to
4.5 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to fall due to
lower carry-in stocks and production. This report incorporates
information from the STC March 31, 2008 estimate of stocks.
Exports are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply, while
domestic use is expected to remain unchanged. Carry-out stocks
are expected to fall to historically low levels for most crops.
Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast
to increase in 2008-09 for all pulse and special crops, with the
exception of dry peas. The main factors to watch are: petroleum
prices and growing conditions in Canada and the major importing
and exporting countries.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/22744p.pdf
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