Washington, DC
September 3, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton mill use is expected
to decline by 1% in 2008/09 to 26.2 million tons, due to slower
global economic growth and higher prices of cotton relative to
polyester. Cotton mill use is expected to decrease in Turkey,
the United States, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, Thailand,
Russia, China (Taiwan), and the Republic of Korea. However,
cotton mill use is expected to continue to increase, more
slowly, in China (Mainland), Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam.
World cotton production is expected to decline by 6% in 2008/09,
to 24.7 million tons, due mainly to a decline in world cotton
area caused by increased competition from alternative crops. The
projected decrease in world production in 2008/09 is driven by
an expected fall of 1.2 million tons in the United States, to
3.0 million tons.
World imports are forecast up by 3% to 8.6 million tons in
2008/09. Imports by China (Mainland) are expected to increase
significantly. However, imports by the rest of the world are
projected down for the second consecutive season.
World cotton stocks are forecast to decrease by 12% to 10.7
million tons in 2008/09.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.64 |
26.24 |
24.7 |
122.3 |
120.5 |
114 |
|
Consumption |
26.68 |
26.55 |
26.2 |
122.6 |
122.0 |
121 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.24 |
8.6 |
37.3 |
37.8 |
40 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.40 |
12.17 |
10.7 |
57.0 |
55.9 |
49 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
72.90 |
82** |
59.15 |
72.90 |
82** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence interval: 70
to 95 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_september_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
