Australia
July 15, 2009
Source:
Australian Oilseeds
Federation (AOF)
Canola 2009/10
 In
NSW, there has been good rain across the whole state in June and
early July, which has given the crop a solid start to the
season. In the north and central west, the crop is well
advanced, with some early crops starting to flower. Subsoil
moisture levels are good, but there will need to be early spring
rains to deliver a good harvest. There is evidence of blackleg
leaf lesions in most areas, with some evidence of mandalotus
weevils also present, neither of which is having any real impact
on the crops.
Further south, the crops are progressing well with later sown
crops now at the 4 leaf stage, with buds visible on some of the
early planted crops. Subsoil moisture reserves are building well
after good June rains and are now at a depth of 50-60 cm on the
slopes, but less further south and to the west. arly spring
rains will be important. Disease and insect levels are low. Weed
control has been a challenge with consistent wet and windy
conditions through June, but recent conditions have been better
for spraying. Improved seasonal conditions has lifted yield
prospects to 1.5 t/ha, off a slightly higher area.
There is some 7-10,000t of Juncea canola in NSW this season,
with almost half around Condoblin in the Central West.
In Victoria, good conditions through June with close to average
rainfall, but as with NSW, will need Spring rains to boost the
moisture profile. Crops dry sown in Mallee are now at the stem
elongation phase. The later sown crops are at the 6-leaf stage.
Most crops now have “reasonable” subsoil moisture beneath them.
In the Wimmera, crops range from 4 leaf stage (later sown crops)
to 8 leaf stage. Insect pest have been mild in general because
the crops were sown on time and have been growing fast. In the
Western District, there have been good general rains, but there
will still need to be average Spring rains as the subsoil is
very dry. This area has reported a lot of issues with weeds this
year, particularly late germinating weeds, with an observation
that the weed spectrum is changing with more intensive cropping
(more group A herbicide resistant ryegrass and more wild
radish). In the Geelong region, canola sown on time is at the
5-6 leaf stage. Growers are currently applying their
post-emergent sprays. Insect levels are reported as low,
although around Winchelsea, a few slugs and earwigs are causing
some problems. The crops that were sown later (i.e. late
May/early June) are at the 2-3 leaf stage.
In summary, no change to Victorian estimates, however yields can
be expected to lift if Spring rain eventuates.
South Australia, like NSW and Victoria, has experienced very
good June/July rains which has served to support the estimates
provided last month (no change). Some crops in the mid north
were flowering in early July while many crops on Eyre Peninsula
will be flowering by mid July. Despite some hail damage on the
Eyre Peninsula, and instances of black leg occurring, the
outcome for yield in SA remains strong at 1.4t/ha.
For Western Australia, rainfall has improved compared to last
months report, with the crop now fully emerged and growing well,
with mixed growth stages, due to the patchy (rainfall) start to
the season. June rainfall was 'average' for all growing areas in
WA, as in most areas of Australia, and the forecast is for
continued 'average' rainfall in WA at this stage. There are no
significant issues (pest or disease) affecting the crop at this
early stage, other than some colder conditions being experienced
in some Southern areas.
Soybean 2008/09
 This
is the last soybean crop report for the season, with no change
in the estimates from last month. The outlook for the next
season’s crop is beginning to take shape, with early indications
being another strong year, albeit likely to be down on this
season’s near record crop. Factors that will be influencing
grower’s decision is the current strengthening in both sugar and
cotton prices, which may lead to plantings of these crops at the
expense of soybeans.
Global Snapshot
The outlook for the soybean crop in the US is still bullish as a
result of favourable weather conditions holding up, while
variable weather conditions in Canada has contributed to an
overall decline in world production estimates for canola.
Despite strong demand for sun oil, world supply is strong with
exports from the 3 main exporting countries up 14%. In early
July, the large supplies of sun oil led prices to be at a
discount to soy and canola.
The increasing indications of an El Niño event resulting
below-normal rainfall in Southeast Asia, Australia, South Africa
and other countries, is tempering expectations. If this event
materializes, it will also impact palm and other lauric oils.
Demand for palm oil remains strong in the EU, up 18% on prior
year. This is being driven by higher demand for use in
electricity generation and biodiesel production. Germany has
increased it admixture of biodiesel to biofuel to 7% from 5%
last year.
Source: Oil World July reports |
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