Beijing, China
April 7, 2014

USDA/FAS GAIN report 14016

Report Highlights:

China’s wheat, rice, and corn production are forecast to maintain record or near-record levels, supported by high government-set purchase prices. Corn import estimates for marketing year 2013/14 are cut to 4 million tons due to large domestic stocks and biotech-related trade disruptions. Imports of alternative feed ingredients, such as U.S. sorghum and dried distiller grains, have reached record levels.

Executive Summary:

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2014/15 is forecast stable at 122 million metric tons (MMT). MY 2014/15 wheat imports are forecast at 4 MMT, down 3 MMT from the previous year, as near record production and lower feed use reduce import demand.

MY 2014/15 corn production is forecast at a record 218 MMT based on an expansion in corn acreage at the expense of less profitable soybeans and cotton. Corn imports in MY 2014/15 are forecast to fall to 3 MMT due to high domestic corn stocks and the potential for continued biotech-related trade disruptions.

MY 2014/15 rough rice production is forecast to edge slightly higher to 204 MMT on average yields and a small increase in acreage. Rice imports in MY 2014/15 are forecast to increase 500,000 tons to 4 MMT as high government support prices keep domestic rice prices above world prices.

Imports of alternative feed ingredients are expected to continue to grow as these products are not restricted by tariff rate quotas (TRQs) and are less likely to be subject to policy interventions. Estimated MY 2013/14 sorghum imports are increased 500,000 tons to 3.5 MMT on strong feed demand. Distillers dried grains (DDGS) and cassava imports also broke new records, reaching 4 MMT and 7.2 MMT respectively in calendar year (CY)

Full report

Website: http://www.fas.usda.gov/

Published: April 7, 2014