Lubbock, Texas
June 16, 2003
Five hundred thousand to 725,000
acres was the "best-guess" estimate of damaged cotton resulting
from violent weather that has wracked West Texas since May 31.
Those estimates were offered by
agronomist, entomologists, crop consultants, agribusiness
representatives and others at a Plains Cotton Growers, Inc.,
roundtable meeting on Friday. Economists with Texas Cooperative
Extension estimate the raw potential economic value of those
lost acres between $130 million and $188.5 million.
Texas farmers plant about 5
million cotton acres each year, stretching from the Rio Grande
Valley near Brownsville to the Texas-New Mexico border in the
west, and as far north as some counties near Amarillo. The
20-county area surrounding Lubbock is often known as "the
world's largest cotton patch," because farmers there typically
plant about 3.2 million acres of upland cotton each year.
Approximately 10 percent of that acreage, roughly 320,000 acres,
never makes it to harvest due to weather, insects, disease, or
other causes.
"The 2003 crop has taken a big
hit in West Texas from a combination of rain, hail and wind
since May 30-31; I have lost count of the number of storms,"
said Randy Boman, Extension cotton agronomist based at Lubbock.
"I'm guessing we have about 500,000 acres damaged in the 20
counties surrounding Lubbock. But I feel like that number is
low."
Boman noted that producers in
Floyd, Crosby, Hale, Swisher, Parmer, Castro, Bailey, Cochran,
Lamb, Lubbock, Terry and Yoakum counties were hardest hit, to
date. The toll of damage on other crops, such as corn or wheat,
and equipment (center pivot sprinklers and barns, for example)
is not known yet.
Patrick Burson, manager of the
Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Foundation's Southern High
Plains/Caprock Eradication Zone, put the number of damaged acres
at 700,000 to 725,000 acres, based on foundation field reports
ranging from the northern High Plains south into the Permian
Basin.
Farmers on the South Plains begin
planting their cotton in early May. Roller coaster daily
temperatures greeted their efforts this year. The high
temperature reached 103 degrees in Lubbock on May 18, but topped
out at only 60 degrees on May 20. Large temperature swings
hamper heat-loving
crops such as cotton, which must accumulate thousands of daily
heat units to make appreciable yields.
"We are a little behind in heat
unit accumulation because of cooler temperatures that have
delayed planting and stunted growth of emerging cotton
seedlings," Boman noted. "The only silver lining I see in the
clouds so far is our soil moisture. The 3 to 8 inches of rain we
have received will help the surviving crop, and any crop that we
replant." Cotton producers should evaluate their damaged fields
closely and carefully before making any replant decisions, Boman
said. There is a host of information on evaluating damaged
crops, making replant decisions, and choosing catch crops to
replace failed cotton on the Internet at:
http://lubbock.tamu.edu.
With a new farm program under
way, producers should check with their county USDA Farm Service
Agency office to ensure their replanting decisions will not
affect their program participation or program benefits. "It's
also important for producers to destroy those failed cotton
acres, to eliminate any potential habitat for boll weevils,"
noted Stan Carroll, cotton entomologist with Texas Cooperative
Extension. Farmers in active boll weevil eradication zones pay
an assessment to fund eradication of this pest through the Texas
Boll Weevil Eradication Foundation. Those who clean out failed
cotton acres may be eligible for a credit on their assessment,
but the possibility of a credit varies zone-by-zone.
"I'm concerned that our recent
weather losses could reduce our regional yield potential by as
much as one million bales," said Roger Haldenby, vice
president-operations for Plains Cotton Growers. "The damage to
date has cut the heart out of some of our most productive
areas," Boman added. In gauging the raw potential product value
of lost cotton, Extension economists put the figures between
$130 million for 500,000 acres of losses and $188.5 million for
725,000 acres lost.
These estimates do not reflect
any crop insurance payments or federal disaster aid payments
affected growers might receive, nor do they reflect the "ripple"
effect these dollars might have in the regional or state
economy. If an economic multiplier of 2.5 is applied, the total
projected economic impact could range from $325 million to $471
million. Economic multipliers are often used to account for the
ripple effect of currency spending as it passes through a
regional or state economy.
Writer: Tim McAlavy, (806)
746-6101, t-mcalavy@tamu.edu
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